Friday, January 19, 2018

First Shots Fired In The Currency Wars - 3


Fig 1  Trends In Sync
Since 2009 this series, in addition to discussing the history of the "petrodollar," has also considered the future of the U.S. version of the petrodollar (First Shots Fired In The Currency Wars - 2).

It is not surprising that the world's petrodollar, historically, has been the U.S. Dollar ... primarily or in significant part because of the reputation of the U.S.A. in the world community.

A Gallup poll, then, is an indicator that the petrodollar situation is in flux:
"One year into Donald Trump's presidency, the image of U.S. leadership is weaker worldwide than it was under his two predecessors. Median approval
Fig. 2 Trends in Sync
of U.S. leadership across 134 countries and areas stands at a new low of 30%, according to a new Gallup report.

The most recent approval rating, based on Gallup World Poll surveys conducted between March and November last year, is down 18 percentage points from the 48% approval rating in the last year of President Barack Obama's administration, and is four points lower than the previous low of 34% in the last year of President George W. Bush's administration."
(World's Approval of U.S. Leadership Drops to New Low). As goes the reputation so goes the dollar's reputation, and vice versa:
"Just days after China's (denied) threat to slow/stop buying US Treasuries, and just days before the launch of China's petro-yuan futures contract, Germany's central bank confirmed it would include China's Renminbi in its reserves."
(As Petro-Yuan Looms, Bundesbank Adds Renminbi To Currency Reserves). "Make America great again" means something else it would seem.

Incidentally, three petrodollar adversaries ranked top notch in that Gallop Poll, indicating that Trumpism is not working:
"Germany has replaced the U.S. as the top-rated global power in the world. The U.S. is now on nearly even footing with China (31%) and barely more popular than Russia (27%) ..."
(ibid, Gallup Poll). These are sad times for the U.S.A. (whether the 62 some odd million voters who made it so know it or not).

The previous post in this series is here.



Tuesday, January 16, 2018

The World According To Measurements - 10

Fig. 1a
Fig. 1b
Fig. 1c
Fig. 2a
Fig. 2b
Fig. 2c
Fig. 3a
Fig. 3b
Fig. 3c
I. In The Beginning

What do you do?  (when you have been using a toolkit forever, then log on to the site one day to find the following):
"The SeaWater library of EOS-80 seawater properties is obsolete; it has been superseded by the Gibbs SeaWater (GSW) Oceanographic Toolbox of the International Thermodynamic Equation Of Seawater - 2010, (TEOS-10)"
(EOS-80, emphasis added). My solution was to change to using TEOS-10 for my thermal expansion and related oceanography oriented calculations (The World According To Measurements - 7).

Progress happens (such as: The World According To Measurements, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9).

Sometimes I wonder, though, if others noticed the improvement.

That is because peer-reviewed papers relevant to the subject of thermal expansion of the ocean don't seem to mention the issue or either one of those toolkits (On Thermal Expansion & Thermal Contraction, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27).

Anyway, it is a struggle to use a vast database, as these logs show:
a Dredd Blog processing log:

1000_vc1 = 134,806,808
1000_vc2 = 133,628,647
(268,435,455)

3000_vc1 = 82,398,521
3000_vc2 = 80,352,621
(162,751,142)

5000_vc1 = 83,301,108
5000_vc2 = 82,227,068
(165,528,176)

7000_vc1 = 134,492,236
7000_vc2 = 133,943,219
(268,435,455)

new_vc1 = 67,156,207
new_vc2 = 67,061,513
(134,217,720)
==============
(999,367,948 total)
That is the "~billion records" I speak of every now and then.

Regular readers will know that the 1000, 3000, 5000, 7000, and "new" are WOD indicators for hemispheric quadrants: NE (1000), NW (7000), SE (3000), SW (5000).

The "new" indicates subsequent additional measurements for those quadrants about each quarter (WOD selection map, WOD updates).

The "vc1" and "vc2" indicate temperature measurements (vc1) and salinity measurements (vc2).

II. A Problem

One of several problems that are associated with the change to TEOS-10 is that the functions in the toolkit, such as gsw_alpha(SA, CT, P), require a pair or set of coherent measurements.

By coherent I mean taken at the same location, depth, and time.

Which led to the problem of organizing those ~billion measurement that way.

As it turned out, there were many measurements that did not meet that requirement.

There are "orphan" temperature and salinity measurements at various depths that can't properly be used in toolkit functions that require a group of values.

So ...

III. A Solution

The solution is to weed out the outliers and make a coherent group of measurements that will allow the proper use of the TEOS-10 toolkit.

The numbers themselves show that the CTD and PFL dataset counts are not one temperature measurement for each salinity measurement.

So, my software separates them into coherent groups while processing the WOD format into a CSV file format.

I have been perfecting that software for awhile now, and am very close to "no more problems" with that part of it.

IV. Recent Graphs

Recently we noticed that the salinity graphs revealed some radical departures from the norm of abstract maximum and minimum boundaries.

That is not unusual in a mean average situation, because there will be "the lowest" and "the highest" which will be moderated by averaging.

But as I fine tuned the pairing, some of the aberrations (but not all) subsided.

V. Today's Graphs

Today's graphs show that the salinity pair matching has improved, and I really don't expect it to change from here on out.

I am not talking about new data each quarter, I am talking about the fixed CTD and PFL datasets (1000, 3000, 5000, and 7000 quadrants).

In other words, I think the software is "there."

VI. Conclusion

I did not include the S. Hemisphere ... cause I want to listen to some Santana when he was a youngster (after Mark Hanson's hot Santana session addition, I was forced to add the S. Hemisphere graphs: Fig. 3a - Fig. 3c).

Join the jam if you like Carlos:



The previous post in this series is here.

Saturday, January 13, 2018

Higher Ground


Higher Ground 

by Stevie Wonder

People keep on learnin'
Soldiers keep on warrin'
World keep on turnin'
'Cause it won't be too long

Powers keep on lyin'
While your people keep on dyin'
World keep on turnin'
'Cause it won't be too long

I'm so glad that he let me try it again
'Cause my last time on earth
I lived a whole world of sin
I'm so glad that
I know more than I knew then
Gonna keep on tryin'
Till I reach my highest ground

Lovers keep on lovin'
Believers keep on believin'
Sleepers just stop sleepin'
'Cause it won't be too long

Oh no

I'm so glad that
he let me try it again
'Cause my last time on earth
I lived a whole world of sin
I'm so glad that
I know more than I knew then
Gonna keep on tryin'
Till I reach my highest ground

Woo!

Till I reach my highest ground
No one's gonna bring me down

Oh no

Till I reach my highest ground
Don't let nobody bring you down
(they'll sho 'nough try)
God is gonna show you
higher ground




Thursday, January 11, 2018

When Accountability Is A Plague - 5

It takes a despotic minority too ...
What does it take to destroy a democracy?

One well researched answer is "the absence of accountability" (When Accountability Is A Plague, 2, 3, 4).

Another well researched answer is "a long time."

A well known and once-most-quoted historian said it takes social suicide:
"In other words, a society does not ever die 'from natural causes', but always dies from suicide or murder --- and nearly always from the former, as this chapter has shown."
(A Study of History, by Arnold J. Toynbee). A well know encyclopedia, looking deeper into that historian's writing, put it this way:
"In the Study Toynbee examined the rise and fall of 26 civilizations in the course of human history, and he concluded that they rose by responding successfully to challenges under the leadership of creative minorities composed of elite leaders. Civilizations declined when their leaders stopped responding creatively, and the civilizations then sank owing to the sins of nationalism, militarism, and the tyranny of a despotic minority. Unlike Spengler in his The Decline of the West, Toynbee did not regard the death of a civilization as inevitable, for it may or may not continue to respond to successive challenges. Unlike Karl Marx, he saw history as shaped by spiritual, not economic forces" ...
(Encyclopedia Britannica, emphasis added). So, if we have an absence of accountability combined with a nationalistic, militaristic, and tyranny orientated despotic minority, kiss democracy goodbye.

For example, when a nation's elections eventually are decided by a minority of voters who are persuaded by nationalism, militarism, and tyranny (whether they know it or not), the end is near.

The previous post in this series is here.