Saturday, June 24, 2017

Golden 23 Zones Meet TEOS-10

Fig. 1 Golden 23 Tide Gauge Locations
I. Introduction

The "Golden 23 Zones" are actually fifteen WOD zones (Fig. 2) which contain the PSMSL "23 golden tide gauge station locations" (Fig. 1) which scientists selected years ago as a valid local-group that is representative of global sea level change (SLC).

The Golden 23 Group's "fingerprints" are also representative of which ice sheets are melting during a given span of time.

The analysis of SLC has been problematic because of, among other things,  oversimplification ("Everything should be made as simple as possible, but no simpler." Albert Einstein). and failure to consider or attribute seminal scientific papers (On the robustness of predictions of sea level fingerprints).
Fig. 2 Golden 23 Zones

Regular readers know that I was convinced of the use of the golden 23 and have posted about that subject (Golden 23 Zones Revisited).

II. TEOS-10

Since the current dogma concerning SLC is enamored of the notion that SLC is mostly due to thermal expansion, anyone who is seriously looking into that hypothesis, in addition to studying SLC measurement practices, must also take on some of the precepts of oceanography and thermodynamics.

Since I do a lot of research using software modules I construct with C++, I eventually ran across the TEOS-10 toolkit.

It is a special-case toolkit that has the blessings of scientific communities:
The Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC), with the
Fig. 3 Thermosteric Volume
endorsement of the Scientific Committee on Oceanic Research (SCOR) and the International Association for the Physical Sciences of the Oceans (IAPSO), has adopted the International Thermodynamic Equation Of Seawater - 2010 (TEOS-10) as the official description of seawater and ice properties in marine science. All oceanographers are now urged to use the new TEOS-10 algorithms and variables to report their work.

Notable differences of TEOS-10 compared with EOS-80 are :
(1) the use of Absolute Salinity [SA] to describe the salinity of
Fig. 4 Absolute Salinity
seawater; Absolute Salinity takes into account the spatially varying composition of seawater. In the open ocean, the use of this new salinity has a non-trivial effect on the horizontal density gradient, and thereby on the ocean velocities calculated via the “thermal wind” relation.

(2) the use of Conservative Temperature [CT] to replace
Fig. 5 Conservative Temperature
potential temperature q. Both of these temperatures are calculated quantities that result from an artificial thought experiment (namely, adiabatic and isohaline change in pressure to the sea surface). Conservative Temperature has the advantage that it better represents the “heat content” of seawater by two orders of magnitude.

(3) the TEOS-10 properties of seawater are all derived from a
Fig. 6 Sea Pressure
Gibbs function (by mathematical processes such as differentiation) and so are totally consistent with each other (in contrast to the now obsolete EOS-80 approach where separate polynomials were provided for each thermodynamic variable and they were not mutually consistent).
(TEOS-10 Flyer, PDF). That EOS-80 usage had led to many an innocent conflicting result over the past 40 years of use.

TEOS has led to further improvement as an adjunct to my use of WOD and PSMSL data sets, in terms of analyzing SLC, especially as that analysis involves the hypothesis of thermal expansion induced SLC.

III. The Procedure

Remembering Einstein's guidance about making things as simple as possible, but no more
Fig. 7 The Volume & Mass Changes
than that (LOL), I will describe the final version of a module that integrates WOD, PSMSL, and THEOS-10 to analyze SLC.

I query the SQL server for all WOD data from a zone, order it by year, and I also query the SQL server for all PSMSL data from that zone, and also order it by year.

I then pass the WOD data through some TEOS-10 functions to derive the absolute salinity and conservative temperature (the relevant TEOS-10 functions begin with "gsw_").

First, we derive sea pressure from the depth (in meters) that the measurement was taken at (now called "height" in TEOS terminology): p = gsw_p_from_z (depth, latitude); then derive absolute salinity: SA = gsw_sa_from_sp (sp, p, longitude, latitude); and finally derive conservative temperature: ct = gsw_ct_from_t (sa,t,p), where "sp" is the in situ measured salinity that has been recorded in the WOD database, "t" is the in situ measured sea water temperature that has been recorded in the WOD database, and "p" is the sea pressure (dbar) calculated from the measured depth and latitude where the measurements were taken.
Fig. 8 Sea level rise

A critical function, in terms of thermal expansion analysis, comes next (the thermal expansion coefficient): tec = gsw_alpha(sa,ct,p), which is required for the final formula which derives thermal volume change (thermal expansion or contraction).

We start with the existing volume of the WOD zone in question.

A bit more "reaching" is required to determine the quantity of sea water (volume or mass) for the ultimate function: ΔV = V0 β ΔT or V1 = V0 * β * (T0 - T1), where V = volume, T = temperature (CT), and β = thermal expansion coefficient.

That is because: 1) the zones are not the same size (as the may seem to be in Fig. 2); 2) they do not have the same depth; 3) they do not have the same amount of land mass (e.g. compare zone 7215 with zone 7308 @ Fig. 2); and 4) not to mention variation in temperature and salinity.

Fig. 9 TEOS in action
I use latitude and longitude calculus to determine the length and width of the four (unequal) sides of each golden 23 zone, then multiple all of those varying values by the same depth value (the median depth of the ocean), then subtract from that volume the percentages of the zone that is land, not water.

So, now we can write the TEOS-10 version: zoneV1 = zoneV0 * tec * (CT0 - CT1), where CT0  is last (previous) year and CT1 is this current year, zoneV0 is the zone's beginning volume (prior to the temperature changes in that zone over the year being calculated), and zoneV1 is the new volume after the thermal change calculation has been applied.

The resulting zoneV1 volume can be more (expansion), or less (contraction), than the beginning zoneV0 volume.

These individual zone values are combined to derive the golden 23 mean value.

IV. The Graphs

I use synchronization checks to make sure that the change-patterns match the actual-value-pattern of the entity that is changing in value.

For examples, Fig. 3 checks volume patterns, Fig. 4 checks absolute salinity patterns, Fig. 5 checks conservative temperature patterns, Fig. 6 checks sub-surface water pressure patterns, and Fig. 8 checks SLC patterns.

Those match, so we can now discuss the main feature, while considering the graphs at Fig. 7.and Fig. 9.

V. Calculation

The Fig. 7 ending value for SLC during 1967-2015 is 78.1 mm, and the Fig. 7 ending value for thermosteric volume change is -284.773.

Both expansion and contraction took place, but in the end mass change from the melting of ice sheets and land glaciers was the main feature in this span of time's SLC (assuming I have this TEOS-10 working correctly; I invite comment, criticism, heads-up, etc.).

The critical factor for the thermal expansion hypothesis is global warming impact on the oceans, because, as they say "when water is heated it expands."

In the TEOS-10 world, the Absolute Salinity and Conservative Temperature are the key factors.

As we can see in Fig. 9, those two pillars of the hypothesis fell in value during the time frame we are considering.

This resulted in a small drop in thermosteric volume in the amount of 284.773 cu. km., because as SA and CT go, so goes thermosteric volume.

Nevertheless, sea level measured at golden 23 tide gauge stations registered sea level rise during the same time frame.

VI. Thermal Expansion in The Golden 23 Zones

This does not mean that there was no thermal expansion in other WOD zones, because, among other things, the tide gauge stations are on coast lines.

Another thing is that the highest amounts of sea level rise take place in the deep oceans where ocean mass is increased by not only ice sheet and land glacier melt, but also by relocated ocean mass (The Ghost-Water Constant, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9).

VII. Conclusion

At some point I plan to use the TEOS-10 module, which now seems to be in working order, on all tide gauge stations and all WOD zones combined.

Check out the video below.

Another Dr. Mitrovica video (long version):

08:00 The use of global mean average has led us astray for 100 years.
15:20 Taking the average assumes the imaginary bathtub model.
16:30 It is completely wrong.
21:00 100m of SLF @ Greenland's coast when all ice sheet is gone.
26:40 The Dutch government did not understand the scenario.
28:40 When the ice sheet melts, all the water is distributed in 2 weeks.
29:30 It is error to say that SLF is due only to the land rising.



Short version:



Wednesday, June 21, 2017

Don't Worry, Be Happy - 2

Fig. 1 Salinity & steric volume change
This is a follow up to Don't Worry, Be Happy posted a few days ago on June 17 (sea level rise impact on islands in Chesapeake Bay, U.S. East Coast).

I am posting this follow-up to reiterate how important it is to, among other things, take any mean averages with a grain of salt.

The previous post was a look at one zone in WOD Layer Five, while today's graphs cover all zones in Layer Five.

Fig. 2 Temperature & steric volume change
The comparison of these two posts is also instructive as to how the presentation of thermal expansion and contraction can impact upon one's perception of that dynamic.

And finally, it shows that my "5.1%" graph technique as to steric changes can also overstate thermosteric (thermal expansion) sea level change.
Fig. 3 Four Panel View

For example, notice Fig.4 (was Fig. 2 in the previous post of this series).

It shows thermal expansion in Zone 7307 of Layer Five, while today's graph of the entire layer does not.

Regular readers know that Dredd Blog consistently points out that sea level is different, even from zone to zone, contrary to the problematic bathtub model discourse (The Bathtub Model Doesn't Hold Water, 2, 3, 4).

The better practice is to acknowledge that there are geophysical realities to consider (The Ghost-Water Constant, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9; The Gravity of Sea Level Change, 2, 3, 4).

Fig. 4 (was Fig. 2 here)
The compaction or compression of the data view in graphs can also enhance detail that is minimized in another graph.

If one compares Fig. 3 with Fig. 2 that concept becomes more clear.

The gist of my point is that it is fine to use different types of graphs so long as details which enhance and contrast what is being displayed are made as clear as possible to the readership.

The previous post in this series is here.

Tuesday, June 20, 2017

The Machine Religion

DNA is not alive, not biotic
Regular readers will remember several Dredd Blog series that pierced the veil of evolutionary ideology, deducing that those who teach evolution need to become more honest and grasp the reality that the theory clearly mandates that machines evolved before carbon based life evolved (The New Paradigm: The Physical Universe Is Mostly Machine).

Here is some further reading on the subject: The Uncertain Gene, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11; Putting A Face On Machine Mutation, 2, 3, 4; On the Origin of the Genes of Viruses, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13; Did Abiotic Intelligence Precede Biotic Intelligence?.

The basic brain shock wave begins to reverberate when we realize that DNA (genes) have the nature of machines, that is, they are not organic life (The Uncertain Gene - 8).

Today's post begins  a new series "The Machine Religion" which has the purpose of explaining why human society is cavalierly in the process of (in terms of biotic life) "self destruction," but in machine language it is "regeneration".

In today's post I want to discuss the metae ("2. pertaining to or noting an abstract, high-level analysis or commentary," - Dictionary) and initial tenets ("1. any opinion, principle, doctrine, dogma, etc." - Dictionary) of the machine religion.

The first clue in the study of the machine religion is to comprehend the mysticism of technology, to wit:
Technocracy itself is an immortality ideology that, although it is coupled with materialism, has as part of its makeup an element of the magical and a belief that new tools and innovations provide solutions to both the small day-to-day problems of life and the larger problems of human happiness and mortality. Technology is entrancing, and, functionally, technologists become creators of magic and the wizards of today, claiming the same authority over technology that doctors claim over human health or shamans over the cursed. This has always been so, going back to ancestral peoples who learned to use fire, tools, wind, and wheels. Even in subsistence societies, technology has a greater impact on a variety of sociological variables than do supernatural or religious beliefs (Nolan and Lenski 1996).
...
Even in subsistence societies, technology has a greater impact on a variety of sociological variables than do supernatural or religious beliefs (Nolan and Lenski 1996).
(Dickinson, J. L., 2009, Ecology and Society 14(1): 34, emphasis added). As cyborgs (i.e. abiotic/biotic life on Earth) build societies, the machine religion eventually dominates:
Because there are few cultures remaining that have not been superseded by larger entities, with tribes becoming townships, cities, states, and nations, we no longer have an “integrated world conception into which we fit ourselves with pure belief and trust” (Becker 1975). Although this might open up the possibility of a utopian, egalitarian, and secular society in which the combined gifts of individuals prevail, what we have in the West is a secular inequality devoid of a shared sense of the sacred and a heroism that triumphs over nature, perpetuating itself through new immortality ideologies that value material acquisitions and money. Lacking in heroism, these immortality ideologies come up empty or even inspire guilt. The irony of Western materialism is that wealth beyond the point of basic material comfort does not make people happy (Gilbert 2005).
(ibid). These observations explain why a minority of participants in the (it is said) "greatest, richest, and militarily most powerful nation" of current civilization can take control of power:
Traditionally, technology consolidates power within a society and  exacerbates inequity. What is interesting about the new information  technologies is that they do both: They consolidate power with patents, exclusive intellectual capital, and expensive tools, and they distribute power through open source technologies and open communication networks. As such, they promote material segregation  while at the same time providing a relatively open network within which  ideological communities can function. Photo galleries, forums,  listserves, Google groups, and new social networking tools like MySpace,  Facebook, and Second Life present mechanisms for growing online  communities. In this new virtual world, frequent interaction is easy to  achieve, and the topics around which free choice interaction occurs can  be very focused and specific, suggesting that large social networks function like smaller ideological communities once did in the real  world.
(ibid). It is as if "The Matrix" movie theme (machine-intelligence cultivates and farms biological humanity for producing energy) is the reality (The Matriarch of The Matrix, 2, 3).

"We" are practicing a self-destruct-sequence that comes from deep within us, all the way down to the machines (the atoms and molecules), if our recorded history is considered:
"In other words, a society does not ever die 'from natural causes', but always dies from suicide or murder --- and nearly always from the former, as this chapter has shown."
(A Study of History, by Arnold J. Toynbee). This is further supported by the science which informs us that carbon is formed in stars ("When a ... star begins to die out ... and ... begins to manufacture carbon...").

Which means that stars are an essential abiotic womb of carbon based life forms.

The stars self-destruct eventually, destroying the carbon based life forms on planets within the zone near them, where biological life is likely to be established:
Earth's fate is precarious. As a red giant, the Sun will have a maximum radius beyond the Earth's current orbit, 1 AU (1.5×1011 m), 250 times the present radius of the Sun. However, by the time it is an asymptotic giant branch star, the Sun will have lost roughly 30% of its present mass due to a stellar wind, so the orbits of the planets will move outward. If it were only for this, Earth would probably be spared, but new research suggests that Earth will be swallowed by the Sun owing to tidal interactions. Even if Earth would escape incineration in the Sun, still all its water will be boiled away and most of its atmosphere would escape into space.
(Wikipedia, Astronomy Today, PBS, and Space Dot Com). Thus, the machine religion is, on the surface, akin to a death and rebirth cult of biological life that worships the sun god.

I will close this first post of this series with the notion of the sun god episode of the machine religion (Dying-and-rising god) along with its trail of "destruction" (On the Origin of the Genes of Viruses - 6).







Monday, June 19, 2017

The Shapeshifters of Bullshitistan - 7

D-Con Gollum
Three Rings for the Elven-kings
under the sky,
Seven for the Dwarf-lords
in halls of stone,
Nine for Mortal Men,
doomed to die,
One for the Dark Lord
on his dark throne
In the Land of Mordor 
where the Shadows lie.
One Ring to rule them all, 
One Ring to find them,
One Ring to bring them all 
and in the darkness bind them.
In the Land of Mordor 
where the Shadows lie.” - J.R.R. Tolkien

Today's episode is about D-Con Gollum, a baptist deacon who seeks to religiously destroy the life on a planet he has yet to discover (You Are Here).

But way, way, way more than that, it is about the etiology of social dementias (Etiology of Social Dementia, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16) that have destroyed every civilization plagued by mental illness posing as wisdom in high places:
"In other words, a society does not ever die 'from natural causes', but always dies from suicide or murder --- and nearly always from the former, as this chapter has shown." - A Study of History, by Arnold J. Toynbee

To wit:
"Charismatic leaders and deities are common soteriological transference objects, but so are movie stars, political leaders, lovers, and teachers. The exact nature of transference varies, but what is critical is that transference objects appear larger than life and more enduring than the mortal self.
...
Becker connected the denial of death to a broad suite of behaviors enacted in defense of a cultural world view, placing his ideas within the context of Western society’s increasingly distant relationship to nature and rejection of death as an integral part of life (Becker 1975, Lifton 1979).
...
His goal was to revitalize the enlightenment tradition (Anchor 1979) and develop a “science of man” that would discover the psychological reasons why people gravitate toward finding meaning within some context of cosmic significance, why group ideologies so often involve literal or symbolic immortality, why cultural ideologies are so often the grounds upon which battle lines are drawn, and why so much of human motivation is subconscious and thus outside awareness.
...
Given the paradox that most modern immortality-striving hero systems hinder our chances of survival, what might we learn by investigating the psychological mechanisms governing our choices? Understanding proximate behavioral mechanisms, particularly unconscious motivations that govern decision making, may reveal methods for generating a sustained response to global climate change in the short term and provide insights that individuals and institutions can use to foster rational responses to escalating environmental crises over the long term.
...
Terror management theory (TMT) is the formalization of Becker’s ideas within the field of social psychology. Although not universally accepted (Navarrete and Fessler 2005), TMT is supported by evidence from more than 300 empirical studies testing a wide range of predictions with Western and indigenous societies in various parts of the globe (Pyszczynski et al. 2006). For this reason alone, it is worth taking seriously and integrating with environmental thinking, particularly with regard to human responses to climate change.
...
Proximal defenses use rational thinking and deploy immediately after conscious thoughts of death are triggered; they involve both active suppression and cognitive distortions that relegate the problem of death to the distant future (Pyszczynski et al. 1999).
...
Where global climate change is concerned, proximal defenses to thinking about mortality are likely to manifest in three ways: (1) denial of climate change, i.e., climate skeptics; (2) denial that humans are the cause of climate change; and (3) a tendency to minimize or project the impacts of climate change far into the future, where they no longer represent a personal danger (Table 1).
...
Distal defenses are symbolic and occur in the absence of negative affect, physiological arousal, or distress; they are deployed in response to verbal or written death primes and subliminal death stimuli, which strongly supports the idea that they are unconsciously motivated. Experiments indicate that bolstering self-esteem helps to keep death thoughts at bay (Greenberg et al. 1992b). Consequently, threats to self-esteem can elicit terror management defenses, whereas factors such as a history of secure attachment or thinking about one’s own secure relationship have buffering effects (Florian and Mikulincer 1998, Mikulincer and Florian 2000, Mikulincer et al. 2003). Experiments designed to explore distal defenses are intriguing because they tap into unconscious motivation in compelling ways, asking whether interventions (primes) that increase mortality salience also increase the individual’s striving for self-esteem, defense of his or her own world view, antagonism toward outgroups, and idealization of ... leaders.
...
Proximal defenses cause people to minimize the severity of mortal problems. If thinking about climate change triggers proximal defenses, people who say that they believe climate change is occurring will still tend to underestimate the need for an immediate response. As conditions worsen and it becomes increasingly difficult to deny the effects of global climate change, more people will probably switch over to distal defenses.
...
For example, people who find self-esteem via materialism and an ideology of entitlement will probably buy more SUVs and become more antagonistic toward environmental causes and points of view, favoring suppression of the environmental movement and harsher penalties for the more radical protestors. In contrast, people who find self-esteem through humanist ideologies or environmentalism should become increasingly militant and vocal about their causes. This clash between two major Western ideologies is likely to produce even deeper ideological rifts within and outside the United States than we currently see. [this paper was written in 2009, and now we see Gollum as head of the EPA, so the hypothesis made a prediction that panned out]

...
If the perception of risk, including the risks associated with climate change, increases death thought accessibility, and this becomes increasingly likely as the impacts of climate change reveal themselves, then efforts to move people toward environmentally responsible behaviors may have the opposite effect, causing them to purchase large gas-guzzling vehicles, listen to Rush Limbaugh, join fundamentalist cults, or, in the case of university faculty, hunker down and write more scientific papers.
...
We currently lack the basic understanding required to design educational structures to support leadership, resilience, and courageous responses to the problem of global climate change.
...
Because there are few cultures remaining that have not been superseded by larger entities, with tribes becoming townships, cities, states, and nations, we no longer have an “integrated world conception into which we fit ourselves with pure belief and trust” (Becker 1975). Although this might open up the possibility of a utopian, egalitarian, and secular society in which the combined gifts of individuals prevail, what we have in the West is a secular inequality devoid of a shared sense of the sacred and a heroism that triumphs over nature, perpetuating itself through new immortality ideologies that value material acquisitions and money. Lacking in heroism, these immortality ideologies come up empty or even inspire guilt. The irony of Western materialism is that wealth beyond the point of basic material comfort does not make people happy (Gilbert 2005).
...
Technocracy itself is an immortality ideology that, although it is coupled with materialism, has as part of its makeup an element of the magical and a belief that new tools and innovations provide solutions to both the small day-to-day problems of life and the larger problems of human happiness and mortality. Technology is entrancing, and, functionally, technologists become creators of magic and the wizards of today, claiming the same authority over technology that doctors claim over human health or shamans over the cursed. This has always been so, going back to ancestral peoples who learned to use fire, tools, wind, and wheels. Even in subsistence societies, technology has a greater impact on a variety of sociological variables than do supernatural or religious beliefs (Nolan and Lenski 1996).
...
Even in subsistence societies, technology has a greater impact on a variety of sociological variables than do supernatural or religious beliefs (Nolan and Lenski 1996).
...
Traditionally, technology consolidates power within a society and exacerbates inequity. What is interesting about the new information technologies is that they do both: They consolidate power with patents, exclusive intellectual capital, and expensive tools, and they distribute power through open source technologies and open communication networks. As such, they promote material segregation while at the same time providing a relatively open network within which ideological communities can function. Photo galleries, forums, listserves, Google groups, and new social networking tools like MySpace, Facebook, and Second Life present mechanisms for growing online communities. In this new virtual world, frequent interaction is easy to achieve, and the topics around which free choice interaction occurs can be very focused and specific, suggesting that large social networks function like smaller ideological communities once did in the real world.
...
Nontheistic conservation communities often arise around ideological symbols or charismatic archtypes. The practice of bird watching in the United States has grown dramatically, increasing by 155% in the years from 1982 to 1995 (Fitzpatrick and Gill 2002). This rapid exponential growth, similar to the growth that sometimes accompanies new religious movements, suggests that bird conservation communities function as ideological entities.
...
Currently, more than half the world’s population lives in cities, and this constitutes a large segment of humanity that is disconnected from the natural world (Louv 2005).
...
Academic science is both a world view and a context for self-esteem according to Becker (1975). This can lead scientists to imbue the scientific process with a power that it does not actually possess.
...
Although research may provide major insights that help to mitigate change that is inevitable, terror management theory predicts that we will focus our attention and resources on discovery and mitigation for global climate change at the expense of actions that will stop the process from occurring in the first place. The frequency with which scientists currently discuss “adaptation to” and “mitigation for” climate change is disturbing, and may speak of a reluctance to confront the problem with a realistic attitude (Dyson 2006). Awareness of this possibility can help redirect scientists to circumvent distal defenses in this somewhat ironic context."
(The People Paradox: Self-Esteem Striving, Immortality Ideologies, and Human Response to Climate Change; emphasis added; link to PDF version).

Just sayin' ...

The previous post in this series is here.