Friday, August 4, 2017

The World According To Anomalies

Fig. 1 The pattern of global anomalies
I. Background

Many scientists today like to describe events in terms of an anomaly ("something that deviates from what is standard, normal, or expected" - dictionary).

I like that technique, because, if one says "the temperature today is ...", in one sense it does not connote as much as "the temperature anomaly today is ..." (at least in terms of giving a "heads up").

With that in mind, a thought came to my mind in terms of "how can I present a group of analogous climate factors into a simple line graph?"

II. The Graph of Climate Anomalies Emerges

The first attempt to accomplish the task is shown in Fig. 1 as a simple line graph.

It is plain enough to please the Amish, however, it is bound to please others when they consider what it is composed of and what it "says."

III. The Simple Complexity of The Anomaly Pattern

The graph is composed of the anomalies in the GISS, WOD, and PSMSL in situ measurements.

Fig. 2
These are atmospheric temperature anomalies (measured at weather stations around the globe), ocean temperature and salinity measurements (from  oceanographic stations around the world), and from sea level change records (using 1,486 tide gauge stations' records) from around the world.

But, the difference here is that this is the anomaly pattern that all of these measurements of anomaly present --when combined into one pattern.

It shows that the realm of anomaly is on the rise.

IV. How It Is Done

Fig. 3
This technique requires processing close to a billion ocean temperature and salinity records, weather station records from around the globe, and sea level measurements at tide gauge stations around the world.

Once the data is loaded into a software module (not model), the anomalies are derived by:

1) acquiring the first measurement (oldest in time);
2) subtracting that amount from all subsequent measurements (newer in time);
3) averaging all of the anomalies into one anomaly stream (pattern);
4) writing the results to a CSV file;
5) generating the graph that shows what is happening (Fig. 1).

V. What It Means

The story the pattern tells is clear, which is that it is not only atmospheric temperature alone, not ocean temperature and salinity alone, and not sea levels alone, that are getting increasingly anomalous ("something that deviates from what is standard, normal, or expected" - dictionary).

No, the story this pattern tells us is that our world is and has been and continues to become something that deviates from what is standard, normal, or expected.

In short, our world is out of whack.

VI. Conclusion

Today's graph was the first time I have generated this graph from the vast data stores I have collected ("GISS, WOD, and PSMSL in situ measurements").

Note that I have added Fig. 2 and Fig. 3 for contrast, in the sense that one can view the anomaly component sources individually (Fig. 3), in combination with the timing of individual impacts (Fig. 2).

The next post in this series is here.


Harvard Professor Oreskes begins her presentation at 11 minutes into the video (the first 10 minutes is introductory).



Thursday, August 3, 2017

The Extinction of Chesapeake Bay Islands - 2

Fig. 1 Chesapeake Bay Tide Gauge Records
I. Believe Measurements
or Believe
Your Lying Eyes ?

In a recent post I discussed, among other things, President Trump phoning a mayor of an island community endangered by sea level rise (Don't Worry, Be Happy - 3).

That island, and several others, are in the Chesapeake Bay area (The Extinction of Chesapeake Bay Islands).

That mayor has become an activist following the phone call from the denier in chief, and is out challenging activists who do have a different understanding (Pro-Trump Mayor vs. Al Gore: "Why Am I Not Seeing Signs Of Sea Level Rise?").

The PSMSL tide gauge station records show that sea level in the Chesapeake Bay area have risen a little over a foot and a half in the years 1900 - 2015 (Fig. 1).

II. The Evidence

In that area records of sea level have been kept at some tide gauge stations for over a hundred years (WOD zone 7307).

Here is a list of HTML links to PSMSL tide gauge station records in that area which I used to construct the graph at Fig. 1:
234, 1721, 1444, 862, 1431, 396, 719, 1636, 945, 399, 462, 1635, 597, 1295, 481, 360, 971, 412, 1203, 311, 148, 1338, 636, 1337, 224, 2292, 135, 786, 1153, 180
(click on a station number to see details at the official PSMSL website). Instruments are the best way to measure reality.

The mayor's dilemma was made worse by the self-esteem generated by the call from the president, the fame, and the group think of the denialist party.

III. The Answer To The Mayor's Question

The mayor asked why he could not see sea level rise even though 66% of the island community he mayors is gone, and many other islands have already gone under around him.

The answer comes from psychology and similar disciplines.

He needs a new brain, which only he can construct:
"Probably 98 percent of your reasoning is unconscious - what your brain is doing behind the scenes. Reason is inherently emotional. You can't even choose a goal, much less form a plan and carry it out, without a sense that it will satisfy you, not dis­gust you. Fear and anxiety will affect your plans and your ac­tions. You act differently, and plan differently, out of hope and joy than out of fear and anxiety.

Thought is physical. Learning requires a physical brain change: Receptors for neurotransmitters change at the synapses, which changes neural circuitry. Since thinking is the activation of such circuitry, somewhat different thinking re­quires a somewhat different brain. Brains change as you use them-even unconsciously. It's as if your car changed as you drove it, say from a stick shift gradually to an automatic."
(What Orwell Didn't Know, by Dr. G. Lakoff). The first step toward a new brain is to lose the blinding trances that make us blind simply because we refuse to see (Choose Your Trances Carefully, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8).

IV. Conclusion

The only way out for the mayor is "a physical brain change" so that different thinking can take place.

As a quick study Mr. Mayor, remember the flat earth trance (Once Upon A Time In The West - 2).

The previous post in this series is here.



Tuesday, August 1, 2017

The Shapeshifters of Bullshitistan - 9

The resting place of corruption fighters
Today's post shares some information about an Oiligarch of Oil-Qaeda.

An Oiligarch who is being courted by a member of The Shapeshifters of Bullshitistan known as "the Leader of the Laundromat."

It begins with the written statement, and expert testimony (see video below, long but worth it) that was quite recently given under oath to the Senate Judicial Committee (for some reason it is not reported on sufficiently in the media yet).

It is testimony (hopefully the good witness lives long!) that finally trumps some of the mystery contained in current media reporting.

That mystery is "why would The Shapeshifters of Bullshitistan lie so much to everybody when there is no 'there' there ?"

Well, as it turns out, there is more there there than previously "imagined":
"Chairman Grassley, Ranking Member Feinstein, and members of the committee, thank you for giving me the opportunity to testify today on the Russian government’s attempts to repeal the Magnitsky Act in Washington in 2016, and the enablers who conducted this campaign in violation of the Foreign Agents Registration Act, by not disclosing their roles as agents for foreign interests.

Before I get into the actions of the agents who conducted the anti-Magnitsky campaign in Washington for the benefit of the Russian state, let me share a bit of background about Sergei Magnitsky and myself."
(The Atlantic, emphasis added). So, this person knows about the Magnitsky Act and that it has nothing to do with adopting Russian children (Russia fumes as U.S. Senate passes measure aimed at human rights).

Well then, let's shock jock ourselves with these tidbits:
"Russia has a well-known reputation for corruption; unfortunately, I discovered that it was far worse than many had thought. While working in Moscow I learned that Russian oligarchs stole from shareholders, which included the fund I advised. Consequently, I had an interest in fighting this endemic corruption, so my firm started doing detailed research on exactly how the oligarchs stole the vast amounts of money that they did. When we were finished with our research we would share it with the domestic and international media.

For a time, this naming and shaming campaign worked remarkably well and led to less corruption and increased share prices in the companies we invested in. Why? Because President Vladimir Putin and I shared the same set of enemies. When Putin was first elected in 2000, he found that the oligarchs had misappropriated much of the president’s power as well. They stole power from him while stealing money from my investors. In Russia, your enemy’s enemy is your friend, and even though I’ve never met Putin, he would often step into my battles with the oligarchs and crack down on them.

That all changed in July 2003, when Putin arrested Russia’s biggest oligarch and richest man, Mikhail Khodorkovsky. Putin grabbed Khodorkovsky off his private jet, took him back to Moscow, put him on trial, and allowed television cameras to film Khodorkovsky sitting in a cage right in the middle of the courtroom. That image was extremely powerful, because none of the other oligarchs wanted to be in the same position. After Khodorkovsky’s conviction, the other oligarchs went to Putin and asked him what they needed to do to avoid sitting in the same cage as Khodorkovsky. From what followed, it appeared that Putin’s answer was, “Fifty percent.” He wasn’t saying 50 percent for the Russian government or the presidential administration of Russia, but 50 percent for Vladimir Putin personally. From that moment on, Putin became the biggest oligarch in Russia and the richest man in the world, and my anti-corruption activities would no longer be tolerated."
(ibid, The Atlantic, emphasis added). So, the act was about seizing billions of dollars hidden in banks in "the West," rather than Putin's concern for children.

The richest man in the world would likely reward anyone who could lift the sanctions that now have his money on ice:
"For two reasons. First, since 2012 it’s emerged that Vladimir Putin was a beneficiary of the stolen $230 million that Sergei Magnitsky exposed. Recent revelations from the Panama Papers have shown that Putin’s closest childhood friend, Sergei Roldugin, a famous cellist, received $2 billion of funds from Russian oligarchs and the Russian state. It’s commonly understood that Mr. Roldugin received this money as an agent of Vladimir Putin. Information from the Panama Papers also links some money from the crime that Sergei Magnitsky discovered and exposed to Sergei Roldugin. Based on the language of the Magnitsky Act, this would make Putin personally subject to Magnitsky sanctions.

This is particularly worrying for Putin, because he is one of the richest men in the world. I estimate that he has accumulated $200 billion of ill-gotten gains from these types of operations over his 17 years in power. He keeps his money in the West and all of his money in the West is potentially exposed to asset freezes and confiscation. Therefore, he has a significant and very personal interest in finding a way to get rid of the Magnitsky sanctions."
(ibid). Wow, that is a few billion reasons for helping Putin get his money back, eh?

"A little" shape shifting, "a little" bullshitting, and ... viola ... back in the black for The Shapeshifters of Bullshitistan.

Is the deadly game going to go all bullshit on steroids and perhaps bigly violent, now that The Don has blown his cover and the U.S. Congress is adding even more sanctions?

The previous post in this series is here.



Ode to the sycophants (R-RU) in our midst: